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DRAM market declines, the three original factories will reduce investment by more than 20%, improving market supply and demand!

Time:2020-08-28 Views:401
According to the latest data from IC Insights, major DRAM OEMs have reduced their investment in DRAM facilities. It is estimated that the total investment of the three facilities in 2020 will reach 12.5 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 26% from the 16.9 billion U.S. dollars in 2019.
Among them, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron‘s DRAM equipment investment in 2020 will be 4.9 billion U.S. dollars, 4 billion U.S. dollars, and 3.6 billion U.S. dollars, respectively. In 2019, DRAM facility investment will be 6.2 billion U.S. dollars, 6.5 billion U.S. dollars and 4.2 billion U.S. dollars. The US dollar fell 21%, 38% and 14% year-on-year, respectively.
According to ChinaFlashMarket data, due to the “epidemic” driving the growth of the “home economy” and strong demand for servers and laptops, the overall sales of DRAM in the second quarter of 2020 was US$17.06 billion, a month-on-month increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 16%. Samsung, The three original factories of SK Hynix and Micron account for more than 95% of the market share and have been in a global monopoly position.
Three original factories slowed down DRAM investment, the main reason is the uncertainty caused by the "epidemic"
 
The reduction in investment of the three major DRAM OEMs in 2020 is mainly due to the impact of uncertain factors brought about by the "epidemic", especially in the second half of the year when the overseas "epidemic" is repeated and continues to deteriorate, which intensifies the quarter-on-quarter decline in server market demand in Q3. The sales in mainstream markets such as mobile phones and PCs are still lower than the performance in the same period in 2019, making industry insiders conservative on the prospects of the subsequent market.
 
From the recent DRAM market observation, because server demand will decline from the previous month, it may affect server DRAM hard to maintain the high-end price of Q2. At the same time, the overall sales of mobile phones and PCs were lower than the performance of the same period in 2019, and the price of DRAM in the consumer market continued to show a downward trend. According to data from ChinaFlashMarket, the cumulative decline in the price of DDR particles has exceeded 10%. The price of some memory modules in the channel market The cumulative decline has also exceeded 20%.
Under the influence of both demand and price sluggishness, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will inevitably adjust supply and even delay investment plans.
 
DRAM will introduce EUV in large quantities after 1Znm, and investment is expected to increase in 2021
 
The original factory has always relied on technology upgrades to increase DRAM production capacity. At present, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron’s DRAM technology have entered the 1Znm technology stage, and Samsung has introduced EUV technology in DRAM technology. SK Hynix and Micron plan to EUV is introduced into the DRAM of 1anm or 1β technology node to improve performance, yield and shorten development time.
 
In terms of plant construction, Samsung’s new P2 plant plan started in 2018 is to invest in equipment in 2020 for the production of second-generation (1ynm) and third-generation (1znm) 10nm-class DRAMs, including the construction of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) production line.
 
SK Hynix‘s new M16 factory is expected to invest in equipment in the first half of 2021, and it has not yet determined whether to produce DRAM or NAND Flash. As for Micron, the clean room construction of the A3 built next to the Taichung Technology Plant has been completed. It is expected that the main body construction will be completed by the end of 2020. After equipment investment is expected in 2021, it is expected that the latest manufacturing process will be introduced for trial production of DRAM.
 
According to the current investment and construction progress of the three major DRAM OEMs, and a large number of EUV processes after the 1Znm technology, it is expected that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will increase their investment in 2021.
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