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Novel coronavirus pneumonia in Japan and South Korea, what is the impact on global storage industry chain?

Time:2020-03-02 Views:458
The impact of the mainland‘s "new crown" epidemic on the industrial manufacturing industry has not yet fully recovered. Japan and South Korea, with only a strip of water, have seen another case outbreak, attracting global attention again. As of March 1st, novel coronavirus pneumonia in South Korea has 3736 cases, and this data may even exceed 5000 this week. The new warning level of the new crown pneumonia infectious disease is the highest in the south. At present, the number of confirmed cases in Japan has reached nearly one thousand (including the diamond cruise ship). Hokkaido, which has a serious epidemic, has issued the declaration of emergency, calling on residents to minimize going out. Last week, Japan also asked primary, middle and high schools across the country to temporarily suspend classes from today to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
According to the latest global data, 63 countries have reported confirmed cases, and the rapid spread of the epidemic may force Japan and South Korea, which are seriously affected by the epidemic, to adopt super strong anti epidemic "means" or follow the practice of mainland China to further contain the outbreak.
At present, gyeongshang Hokkaido and Daegu in South Korea are the hardest hit areas of the "new crown" epidemic, which has caused thousands of employees of many enterprises, including Samsung Electronics and LG, to be isolated at home, and Guiwei Industrial Park is also about to face the risk of factory shutdown. Weishan No.
In view of the impact of the "epidemic" on mainland enterprises, Japan‘s raw materials, as well as South Korea‘s chemical, electronic, automobile, shipbuilding and other manufacturing industries are also likely to suffer a major impact, especially the core position of Japanese and South Korean enterprises in the storage industry, which makes the industrial chain tense again.
As a big supplier of raw materials, once Japan is occupied, the global industrial chain will face challenges
Looking back on the evolution of Japanese semiconductor industry, in the 1980s, with the spirit of craftsmanship and excellent cost control, Japan once surpassed the United States. In the 1990s, when the 6-inch Fab was transformed into 8-inch fab, South Korea, with the drive of counter cycle investment, accumulated huge capacity advantages and replaced Japanese manufacturers.
However, Japan has not disappeared in the semiconductor territory. With its profound technology and talent accumulation in the field of semiconductor, it has become an important supplier of raw materials and equipment in the world, especially the indispensable raw materials in semiconductor manufacturing processes such as wafer and photoresist. Its market share is relatively high, and some raw materials are almost monopolized by Japan. Once the epidemic continues, it will quickly spread Delay will affect the normal production and transportation of relevant material enterprises, and the downstream demand enterprises will face the risk of price increase or even supply interruption.
As an export-oriented country, Japan‘s raw materials are widely exported to the United States, mainland China, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and other major global semiconductor producing countries. Once the epidemic is out of control, global semiconductor production will face great challenges.
Japanese and Korean enterprises account for 7 components of global memory, and global memory will be in high shortage
With the rapid development of science and technology and the rapid growth of big data, the global memory market is becoming larger and larger. According to the data of chinaflashmarket in China‘s flash market, in 2019, the semiconductor storage market will reach 108 billion US dollars, including the DRAM sales of 62 billion US dollars, and the overall sales of NAND flash market will reach 46 billion US dollars.
Looking at the global memory market, NAND flash and DRAM resources are mainly concentrated in the hands of Japanese, American, Korean and other enterprises. The memory manufacturing enterprises represented by Yangtze River storage and Changxin storage are actively catching up. Korean and Japanese enterprises play an important role in the global market. According to the data of chinaflashmarket in China‘s flash market, in 2019, Samsung, Kaixia and SK Hynix ranked first, second and fifth respectively with 34%, 19% and 10% of the NAND flash market; in DRAM market, the market concentration is higher, and Samsung and SK Hynix ranked first and second with 46% and 29% of the share. Japan and South Korea account for about 70% of the total storage market.
According to the distribution of memory production bases, Samsung DRAM is all produced in South Korea, 70% of NAND flash is produced in South Korea, and more than 25% is produced in China. Among them, Huacheng fab13 and fab15 are DRAM production plants, Huacheng fab12 and Xi‘an phase I are NAND flash production plants, Huacheng fab16, fab17, pingze P1 and P2 under construction are NAND flash and DRAM hybrid plants.
Sk Hynix produces NAND flash in South Korea, mainly M11, M12 and M15 in Qingzhou; DRAM produces more than 60% in South Korea, mainly in M10 in Lichuan and phase I and phase II plants in Wuxi, China; M14 and M16 plants under construction are NAND flash and DRAM hybrid plants.
As a NAND flash supplier, the production lines of data in Western China of its partners are all located in 4ri City, Japan, including fab2, fab3, fab4, FAB5 and fab6, as well as the upcoming K1 factory in Iwate Prefecture. In 2020, Fab7 factory will be built.
Due to the high level of protection provided by dust-free workshops for semiconductor production and the outbreak of "epidemic" in mainland China, all enterprises have made adequate preparation for protection in advance, so the production of Fab factories of Samsung, SK Hynix and armored Xia has no impact at present. However, with the continuous expansion of "epidemic situation" in Japan and South Korea and the trend of "out of control", the system of entry-exit control and Global trade goods import and export quarantine will be upgraded, which will increase the pressure on enterprise product transportation and export.
As a big exporter, Japan and South Korea "epidemic" affects export trade, and China‘s industrial chain bears the brunt first!
At present, the daily increase of new cases in Japan and South Korea is rapid. In the face of the spread of the virus, many countries have to start to take entry control over the affected countries. As of 7:00 p.m. on March 1, the number of countries and regions taking entry control measures against South Korea due to the epidemic increased to 81, which also increases the difficulty of export.
South Korea and Japan, as the countries with export as the economic pillar, according to the data of the Ministry of industry, commerce and resources of South Korea, the export volume of South Korea in 2019 was 542.41 billion US dollars, an annual decrease of 10.3%, of which the export amount of semiconductor accounted for 17.3%, ranking first, and automobile, petroleum products and auto parts ranked second, third and fourth respectively. The main export countries and regions are China, the United States, Vietnam, Hong Kong, etc.
According to the data of Japan‘s import and export customs, Japan‘s total export volume in 2019 is 76.9 billion yen, and the main export countries and regions are the United States, mainland China, South Korea, Taiwan, etc. Among them, the transportation equipment ranked first accounted for 23.55%, machinery ranked second, accounting for 19.66%, electronic devices and chemicals ranked third and fourth, accounting for 17.17% and 11.36% respectively. The global dependence on raw materials exported from Japan is still high. If Japanese enterprises stop production and operation due to the epidemic, the global industrial chain will also face severe challenges.
As for core component storage products, they are an integral part of electronic products. According to the data of Korea‘s Ministry of industry, commerce and resources, in 2019, the amount of storage related products in Korea reached 46.8 billion US dollars, of which 25.926 billion US dollars were exported to the mainland of China, ranking the first, and the second, Hong Kong, China, with 16.321 billion US dollars, ranking the third and fourth, respectively, in recent years To the rising electronics manufacturing bases in the Philippines and India.
According to Japanese customs data, in 2019, Japan‘s exports of memory related products amounted to 1.228 billion yen, of which Taiwan ranked first, with an export volume of 560 billion yen, China‘s mainland ranked second, with an export volume of 500 billion yen, and Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong of China ranked third, fourth and fifth.
Therefore, once the epidemic continues to worsen, electronic manufacturers in mainland China, Taiwan, the Philippines, India and other regions will face the shortage of memory supply, which will produce the domino effect, and the global industrial chain will be affected, including storage manufacturers, terminal electronic manufacturers, etc., including mobile phone, PC, server, television and other electronic industries It will be damaged.
The supply delay of upstream chips may force the seal testing plants in mainland and Taiwan to face "capacity vacancy"
Since February, the epidemic in mainland China has affected public service units, epidemic prevention and control personnel, materials and vehicles, etc. most enterprises delayed the start-up time until the middle of the year, gradually returning to work, reducing the effective working time in February by 7-15 days. If the "epidemic" in South Korea affects and then delays the export of products, the first impact will be the downstream storage and packaging testing enterprises, while the most obvious impact will be the enterprises in mainland and Taiwan.
In general, the original factory has strong capital, not only has the ability to produce NAND Flash and DRAM also set up their own packaging, testing and assembly plants for the production and sales of their own brand products. For example, Samsung has set up semiconductor packaging and testing plants in Jiangsu, China. SK Hynix and Haitai semiconductor strengthen their cooperation in DRAM packaging, and set up packaging plants in Chengdu and Chongqing. Meguiar not only has DRAM packaging centers in Taiwan, but also in West China with Licheng A packaging plant has been set up.
The second is semiconductor OEM and seal test OSAT enterprises, which are used to meet the packaging and testing requirements of other enterprises. The global industrial concentration is relatively obvious. The top ten OSAT enterprises in the world account for about 80% of the market, mainly occupied by enterprises in Taiwan and Mainland China, such as enterprises in Taiwan, such as Sunmoon, Huatai, Licheng, Jingyuan power, etc., while enterprises in mainland China include Huatian technology, Changdian technology, etc.
In the severely affected areas, remote office and remote operation are generally advocated. However, for the sealing and testing factory that needs large-scale production line operation, the rate of employees unable to return to work on time is low, and the production line cannot operate normally, which means the output will be reduced. With the stable control of the epidemic situation in the mainland, enterprises have been actively returning to work. However, if they encounter the supply problems of Korean and Japanese enterprises, the sealing and testing manufacturers may face the dilemma of "no materials to do, no capacity".
If the upstream is out of stock and the terminal sales decline, the storage module factory needs to deal with it intelligently
Memory module factory is like living in a crack. One is to face the supply and price restrictions of the original factory, to face the competition with the original factory in the market, and to continuously innovate and inject new blood. In the just passed 2019 storage market ups and downs, the storage module factory experienced a "bloodbath" after the "fight" ushered in 2020, but the new year seems to have no "mercy" on module manufacturers.
Since the second half of 2019, due to the strategic priority of the original factory‘s supply to data center, enterprise level and other high profit markets, as well as mobile phone and PC OEM markets, the supply of NAND flash to the downstream storage module factories is in short supply, while stimulating the price of NAND flash to continue to rise. As of February 26, 2020, NAND for consumption category The cumulative increase of Flash price index is more than 40%, and module factories have to face the pain of rising procurement costs.
In February, affected by the epidemic in mainland China, NAND flash related products once again set off a price surge, and memory module factories were more affected by the difficulties of factory resumption, traffic, logistics delays and so on. Now South Korea and Japan are facing another "outbreak". If Japan and South Korea have problems in the production and supply of raw materials, memory chips, etc., they will be "the first to hit" memory module manufacturers. What they are facing is the problem of component shortage, and product production and new product listing will also be affected.
The difficulty is far more than that. As the global spread of the epidemic is far greater than expected, and the global panic about the epidemic intensifies, IDC predicts that the overall decline of China‘s terminal market in the first quarter of 2020 is expected to exceed 30% - 40%. From the perspective of commercial market sales channels, in February, the sales of offline stores across the country declined seriously. Only the e-commerce market maintained a certain sales volume, coupled with limited product supply capacity, which had a profound impact on the first quarter of 2020.
The supply of memory core components is not smooth, and the delivery speed of terminal manufacturers is greatly reduced
With the continuous development of storage products and terminal applications, as well as a wide range of market applications, data center, mobile phone and PC have become the main terminal application fields of storage products. According to the data of chinaflashmarket, SSD and embedded products consume 45% and 42% of the total capacity of NAND flash in 2019.
In addition to memory as the core component of electronic products, screens, cameras and other important components. Affected by the Korean epidemic, Samsung‘s mobile phone factory in Guiwei, South Korea, once again announced the suspension of work, and LG display‘s mobile phone display factory in Guiwei, South Korea, also announced the suspension of work, which is expected to resume on March 3. If the new crown epidemic situation in South Korea and Japan cannot be controlled in time, once it gets worse, not only memory, Samsung and LG will play an important role in the screen supply, but also Sony cameras and other supplies will become variable, which will make the terminal manufacturers such as mobile phones and PCs face the dilemma of new product R & D, production shortage and new product delay.
According to market data, in 2019, 1.37 billion smart phones and 261 million pcs will be shipped globally. With the outbreak of 5g demand, the global smartphone shipment is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2020, and the PC market shipment will return to the growth track. However, due to the low short-term return to work rate caused by the "epidemic", as well as the impact of logistics, transportation, etc., IDC has lowered its expectation. It is expected that the global smartphone market will decline by 2.3% in 2020, with a shipment volume of slightly more than 1.3 billion units. Canalys also expects that the global PC shipment will decline by more than 10% in the first half of 2020.
Global cooperation and early success in "anti epidemic"
After decades of development and baptism, the global storage industry chain has become a clear division of labor and close cooperation of all units, with both advantages and disadvantages. South Korea and Japan are the "key cities" of semiconductor industry. If the epidemic continues to worsen, the global industry chain manufacturers will face a huge test.
At present, the epidemic situation in mainland China has been obviously controlled. Except for Hubei, it is speculated that people‘s daily life and enterprise operation will return to normal level in April, so the impact of China on the industrial chain is still controllable. However, if the epidemic situation in South Korea, Japan and other countries cannot be contained in time, the impact of the epidemic on the industrial chain may continue to the second quarter, the heavy damage to the global supply chain will not be estimated, and even the global economic growth in 2020 will be significantly affected.
At present, novel coronavirus pneumonia has been raised to the highest level by the WHO. The epidemic situation is not a country or a nation. It needs global efforts to tackle the epidemic at an early date.
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