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Can storage supply chain demand recover and increase as global economies restart gradually?

Time:2020-04-26 Views:497
With the improvement of virus detection capacity and the gradual implementation of response measures, many countries around the world recently announced plans to restart economic activities to reduce the impact of the new crown epidemic on the economy and reduce the pressure of high unemployment.
Be alert to further increase of unemployment rate, and step-by-step trend of economic restart is inevitable
In 2020, the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak suddenly swept the world, and the semiconductor supply chain was inevitably hit hard.
According to the American Semiconductor Association (SIA) According to the data, in February this year, the global semiconductor sales decreased by 2.4% compared with that in January, of which China decreased by 7.5%; in the capital market, nearly 10 international semiconductor companies lowered their first quarter financial forecast; more than 60 countries around the world took the measures of "closing the city" and "closing the country" to fight against the epidemic, and the consumption demand fell; dozens of semiconductor companies shut down their factories
At present, the epidemic situation is still spreading all over the world. Some analysts believe that the negative impact on the economy may push up the unemployment rate.
According to a report released by Goldman Sachs on May 14, GDP in Europe is expected to drop by about 4% in the first quarter, 11.4% in the second quarter and 9% in the whole year, according to the report.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects unemployment to reach 11.5% across Europe and 8.5% in the UK. The situation in southern Europe is much worse than in northern Europe, with unemployment expected to reach 23% in Spain and 17% in Italy.
The situation in the United States could be even more severe. According to the Wall Street Journal, a second wave of unemployment is about to hit the U. The grass-roots workers serving in places such as restaurants and shopping malls have become the first batch of victims, and the white-collar workers who usually don‘t need close contact with others are also involved in this wave of layoffs.
Fifty seven economists polled by the Wall Street Journal this month predicted that 14.4 million jobs would be lost in the next few months, pushing the unemployment rate to an unprecedented 13% in June, up from 3.5% in February. In the past three weeks, 17 million Americans have claimed unemployment benefits for the first time, breaking the record since World War II.
However, with the phased results of epidemic control, many countries have recently announced the relaxation of some previously prohibited social and economic activities. In order to avoid the spread of the epidemic, many of these countries have taken a step-by-step approach to opening up.
Plan to restart the economy gradually
The epidemic prevention measures taken by European countries such as "closing cities" have begun to show effect. Some countries have entered the stage of epidemic situation, and many countries are considering to gradually resume economic activities.
Italy‘s number of new crown patients fell for the second day in a row on the 21st, with the highest single day increase in cured cases. The Italian government actively reserves materials for epidemic prevention and treatment to prepare for the resumption of economic activities. (at the same time, we are preparing three arrows to control the epidemic situation for the second stage after the resumption of work: virus nucleic acid detection, serum antibody detection and transmission path tracking.) Italy may gradually resume economic activities from May 4, but some control measures will continue to be implemented, Prime Minister kondt said on the same day.
At present, the ventilator and other equipment of the Italian medical system can fully meet the needs of treating patients with the new crown, but the vigilance can not be relaxed, said arcuri, special commissioner of the Italian emergency response Committee for the new crown, Monday.
French President Marcon said recently that the "ban on foot" implemented by France on March 17 has achieved results, but it needs to continue to take restrictive measures, and the "ban on foot" will be extended to May 11. Local health authorities said the outbreak had stabilized, but warned that it could take more than a month for people to gradually return to normal life. "The priority is not to lift the restrictions, but to comply with them more strictly," said Salomon, head of the French health department
The German government has decided to extend social restrictions to at least May 3, but stores with an area of no more than 800 square meters will be allowed to open from April 20 on the premise of meeting the requirements of sanitation and personnel restrictions. From May 4, primary and secondary schools are allowed to resume classes and open barber shops. Merkel warned that the economic life should be restarted slowly, otherwise even if Germany‘s health care system is more developed, it may quickly "overload" and collapse.
Some German states have issued "mask enforcement orders", which require people to wear masks under specific circumstances, such as taking the bus system. From May 4, primary and secondary schools are allowed to resume classes and open barber shops. Merkel warned that the economic life should be restarted slowly, otherwise even if Germany‘s health care system is more developed, it may quickly "overload" and collapse.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that we must keep sober and self-discipline. Once some stores start to open and other "unsealing" measures lead to a surge of new cases, it will be inevitable to tighten restrictions again.
Switzerland announced the lowest number of new confirmed cases in nearly 40 days. The Swiss government announced the three-step plan on April 16: from April 27, barber shops, flower shops, hospitals, non emergency departments of clinics and other places providing personal services can resume work; from May 11, all shopping malls in the country will resume business, primary schools and junior high schools will resume classes; from June 8, high schools and universities will resume classes, museums, libraries, bars, restaurants and other places can be opened to the outside world. Swiss Federal Railway Company announced on the 21st that it will resume part of the railway lines previously shut down due to the epidemic from the 27th.
Portugal‘s parliament said Monday that the state of emergency will not be extended after the end of May 2. The government will hold a ministerial meeting on April 30 to discuss how to loosen some isolation policies and restart economic and social life in May.
The Slovak crisis committee decided on Monday to gradually liberalize the restrictions and resume economic activities in four stages.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a televised speech on the evening of the 18th, announced the relaxation of some of the restrictions imposed by the epidemic. The relaxation includes: allowing the proportion of employees working in the workplace of private enterprises to increase from 15% to 30%; increasing public transport; allowing electrical stores, furniture stores and bookstores to reopen, but the shopping center is still closed; allowing less than 10 people to pray outdoors but need to keep a distance of 2 meters and wear masks; allowing special education and early childhood day care centers to open but limiting the number of people, etc.
Netanyahu said that the measures from the 19th into effect, lasting for two weeks. If the epidemic situation continues to improve, restrictions will be further relaxed, but if the epidemic situation escalates, restrictions will be tightened again.
Serbia‘s government announced Tuesday that the fresh food market, auto repair shops, laundries and other places of business could resume normal business and construction sites could resume work from Monday.
The national "ban on foot" imposed by Greece on March 23 will end on April 27. A spokesman for the Greek government, which is planning to resume normal social operation, said the process would be slow, long-term and targeted.
The number of daily hospitalized patients in the Netherlands has recently shown a steady downward trend. According to the outbreak management group, the Dutch government‘s new crown crisis policy advisory body, the public health situation in the Netherlands is now "under control".
In Cyprus, the number of new infections per day also showed a downward trend, and the government initially considered that after the end of the month "ban on foot" expired, it would not be further extended, and it would first resume the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises.
In Austria, the number of newly confirmed cases dropped to less than 100 for several consecutive days. Austria has resumed some business facilities since April 14. Austrian Prime Minister Kurtz announced Monday that in view of the smooth progress of the first step to relax the anti epidemic measures, the government will continue to cautiously promote the gradual "opening up" of various fields in accordance with the established plan. But shopping malls, big shops and barbershops won‘t reopen until May 1. Bulgaria, Denmark, Slovenia and other countries began to gradually relax restrictions.
At present, the epidemic situation in some European countries is still on the rise. Hungary reported a total of 2098 confirmed cases, 213 deaths and 287 cures. Hungarian foreign minister sialto said on social media that the fight against the epidemic is a long-lasting war, and it is estimated that the Hungarian epidemic will not reach the platform until May 3.
Romania reported 306 new cases of infection, 9242 cases in total, 482 deaths. Luo said it is too early to discuss easing restrictions.
The Legal Committee of the Albanian parliament approved the extension of the state of national natural disasters, which began on 24 March, to 23 June.
At present, the spot is the king
When it is difficult for the original factory to obtain sufficient supply through production in a short period of time, the strong inventory of the agent is the solid backing.

Secondly, affected by the epidemic, semiconductor supply chain relies on agents to provide more powerful services in the process of gathering or transferring. The impact here is divided into two aspects:
A: On the one hand, "Fengguo" and "Fengcheng" in some Southeast Asian countries have affected the export of semiconductor products, and the production capacity has been limited. This part of production capacity demand will probably enter the global deployment of semiconductor original factories. Compared with other countries and regions in the world, China has controlled the epidemic earlier and is now stable. In the case of good resumption of production, the original factory will certainly increase the production capacity of the factories in mainland China, which is reflected in the agency and distribution links. Recently, the export orders of the only sample mall have increased rapidly.
At present, the biggest variable of the epidemic may come from India. If there is an outbreak of the epidemic in India, the domestic OEM factories with local factories or some orders will be moved to China, the demand for domestic components may increase instead of decrease, and this part also needs to be responded by agents.
B: On the other hand, after the epidemic is relatively stable, China has actively launched various measures such as new infrastructure construction and new consumption, which are inseparable from semiconductor chips. In response to domestic measures to stimulate domestic demand, domestic semiconductor has a huge development space. At the same time, international semiconductor companies will pay more attention to the Chinese market. It is reasonable for supply chain to shift or tilt.
This provides the best opportunity for the development of domestic supply chain. Only close to domestic demand and domestic customers, can the maximum value of the supply chain be brought into play, and the ability of providing localized services should be enhanced for acting distributors.
All of these are building a new order of semiconductor "short" supply chain.
Conclusion: if the restrictions on public activities are lifted later this spring, there may be some adjustment between supply and demand by the end of summer, but it will be good for the global market to recover!
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